Recent update on the “conflict”

Updates on the most recent events of the war.

Having military shelled Luhansk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia – Ukraine’s “ex-region”. Russia has almost entirely annexed the invaded territory into the country’s borders. Allowing the Russian military departments to execute escalation in military operations towards Kyiv. Any crises that occur within these areas will result in Russia applying nuclear weapons to the war. Mentioned in one of Putin’s speeches two months ago. The speech was broadcast live from the Russian government office which shows Putin’s assertiveness in keeping the four invaded regions. 

Meanwhile, Ukraine is looking forward to an UN-backed peace summit taking place at the end of February with the UN secretary-general as a possible mediator, António Guterres– according to its foreign minister. The summit also put pressure on Russia as the country would have to face its war crimes tribunal before participation is allowed. 

The location of the battlefield.

Since the Russian army managed to annex Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the battle has become more intense than ever along the region’s border. Within the last 48 hours, the battlefield has been focused on the Bakhmut area of the Donetsk region, and near Svatove in Luhansk. Russia is suffering great losses in Bakhmut and Lyman, according to Ukraine’s armed forces. Adding 620 to the total number of 103200 Russian occupiers eliminated since the war erupted. 

What threats did Putin foresee before the war?

What is on the surface

Looking at the surface of the issue, this is practically a war started by Russia’s president Putin in an attempt to stop Ukraine from joining or becoming one of the UN/Nato’s allies. Preventing any exposure between Russia’s borders with Nato’s military forces. One of the surface reasons for the conflict’s outburst would be the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over the Sevastopol harbour in 2014. Before 2014, the port was leased by Ukraine to Russia before the Russian army annexed the Crimea region and turned the harbour domestic. 

The reason for this violent act would be that most of Russia’s seaports from the far North are likely to stay within a frozen state. Making Sevastopol – the only warm-water marine area they could access for military drills and weapon testing. Moreover, the Black Sea is also the most effective entrance for Russia to gain access to the global sea traffic/market/transportation when it drains into the Mediterranean Sea, via the Turkish Straits and the Aegean Sea. The fact that Ukraine shaking hands with the UN will profoundly damage Russia’s worldwide position, military, economy, and safety. The UN now could set up military camps close to the Black Sea and cut down Russian incomes and supplies. 

But, is it that simple? Only these surface disputes are just the detonator for the conflict that has accumulated over the years between Russia and America. Escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine to the war between Russia and European countries, destroying and damaging millions of homes and youth’s futures. A lot of them are experiencing hell, the war is unexpected and the pressures, the disorientation towards tomorrow, it has never been this hopeless. Resulting in an essential demand for mental health supplies and services including counselors, clinicians, and therapists. Especially teen counselors when both the Ukrainian and Russian youths affected by the war are increasing, they now need to consult a teen counselor or something similar, those that could understand the worldview and help them. 

The actual war between Russia and Nato (linked back to the cold war) 

Have always claimed that Ukraine belongs to the Russian government – from the history that Ukraine used to be a member of the USSR. This conflict between the countries is predictable. 

Let’s return to when the cold war between Russia and Nato started. The cold war was marked by the expansion of the USSR’s system toward Europe and the formation of the EU. After 1921, Ukraine became one of the first Soviet Republics, opening up the emerging Soviet government. The ideological gaps between the two communities split them apart and fueled the later disputes against each other. Within 1949, these European countries along with the U.S. and Canada gave birth to Nato, promising to defend each other before the invasion, dragging America into the game. Nato’s main opponent is the closest Warsaw Pact alliance, led by the Soviet government. Until 40 years later when the USSR collapsed and countries like Ukraine declared independence from the former Soviet government, leaving Russia with a disappearing sphere of influence. 

On the other hand, the Nato alliance is expanding and the newly independent-declared countries are the ones joining them. In 2004 10 countries joined Nato, making Russia’s borders more exposed to Nato’s influence. Resulting in Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine became the last 3 countries to stand between Russia and Nato. However, since Belarus is still staying within Russia’s control; Georgia and Ukraine have long wished to join Nato. Facilitating Putin’s precaution about the possibility of new enemies. The fact that Ukraine became a NATO partner in 1994 and 2013 signing an association agreement with the UN has heightened the tension between the borders. 

Meaning Putin is losing his influence over both the area and the alliance, and he decided to apply force over the issue. The aforementioned annexe of the Crimea Peninsula is his first move, and then Donetsk, and Luhansk. Making the Ukrainian and Russian wars far tracked since the cold war. 

Is this the right move for Russia?

Putin’s actions are necessary for terms of time, but not acceptable in terms of method. Meaning, it is correct for him to act immediately on protecting the Russian borders against Nato approaches, but he could have chosen a more peaceful and softer way. Looking at what is happening for both Ukrainian and Russian people, thousands were killed, economic sanctions are posed, and Russia is being caught between public criticisms and pressures from countries’ governments. 

Could Ukraine join Nato and stand among the EU? 

From what is happening between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine’s internal situation, it seems impossible for Ukraine to become a UN member. Compared to enough criteria for joining the Eu, Ukraine during this wartime is far from meeting the requirements. Being a reserve member of the UN is far from being a member of the UN, not to mention that the other countries within the UN would lose some of their council chair of the UN if Ukraine is allowed to join. No one likes their power to be weakened by that. 

Here are the inquiries that the Ukraine government must obtain before any considerations made:

• New members must uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity.
• New members must be making progress toward a market economy.
• Their military forces must be under firm civilian control.
• They must be good neighbours and respect sovereignty outside their borders.
• They must be working toward compatibility with NATO forces.